Beginning with the launch of Apple’s iOS 14.5 in late April, the number of ad opportunities that will include targetable device IDs will decline sharply. Estimates for the loss of scale vary, but we generally expect opt-in rates for user tracking on apps and sites to be on the low side of these estimates, perhaps 20-30%. Addressable programmatic scale could decrease by more than 25% in just a matter of weeks.1 As iOS adoption increases and Google’s changes take effect, we could start to see a dwindling minority of programmatic inventory that includes the device IDs required for traditional targeting and deterministic match-based measurement.

How will the deprecation of device IDs and cookies affect scale?

We believe the deprecation of Ad IDs and cookies will reduce the scale of ID-addressable inventory by >25% very quickly, and ultimately >50%. You can’t continue targeting only devices that have IDs without significantly reducing your reach and efficiency.

What types of solutions and providers are affected by ID deprecation?

These changes affect all players, including walled gardens, open web programmatic platforms, publishers and marketers. Even walled gardens will see a lower rate of opt-in on network inventory and on sites & apps where conversions are taking place, that will likely impact their ability to measure and thus monetize inventory.

What is the industry doing about it?

Much of the industry is focused on replicating the third party cookie and IDFA with solutions like UID 2.0. There are multiple solutions of this type offered or proposed by different publishers, vendors and organizations. Keep in mind that all of these alternative identity structures are by definition opt-in. There will always be a substantially lower percentage of user opt-in tha